WNBA
Azzi Fudd U 19.5 PA (−108)
51% to hit
-1.5
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WNBA · TIP · SUN, JUL 19, 8:00 PM
Liberty visit Dallas in a classic low-pace grind between two defensively competent teams operating near 81 possessions per game. The matchup features DAL's elite perimeter defense (3rd in 3PM allowed league-wide, 7.72/game; 1st among forwards at just 2.2/game) against NYL's superior free throw generation (33.0% FTA rate vs. DAL's 24.2%), creating a tension between perimeter suppression and interior aggression. DAL's net rating advantage (+5.18 vs. NYL's +1.87) and 5th-ranked defensive rating (104.12) position them as modest favorites in a projected 169-point total game. Both teams enter with roster absences (DAL: Paige Bueckers out; NYL: Leonie Fiebich out), introducing lineup uncertainty that slightly compresses star-player volume and increases blowout risk (22% probability). The game flow will be a half-court attrition battle where possession scarcity favors DAL's elite defense, but NYL's guards (Sabrina Ionescu, Pauline Astier) can exploit a neutral-to-slightly-soft assist-defense matchup to generate playmaking volume.
MODEL SIMULATION · EARLY
Market-anchored game state + a conserved 200-minute rotation pool, simulated per player. Out and doubtful players are removed per the official injury report. Range is the 10th–90th percentile across the simulation, not a hard floor or ceiling.
NYL
DAL
DAL vs NYL · last 15 meetings · NYL leads
RECENT MEETINGS
POINTS PROP LEANS
Leans compare each player's share of her team's recent scoring against the share her posted line implies — a lower line than her recent role reads OVER, a higher one reads UNDER. Recent-form leans, not measured edges: the signal hasn't been validated against closing lines yet.
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The pick, the number, and the edge unlock with a membership.
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The pick, the number, and the edge unlock with a membership.
•••••• ••
The pick, the number, and the edge unlock with a membership.
•••••• ••
The pick, the number, and the edge unlock with a membership.
•••••• ••
The pick, the number, and the edge unlock with a membership.