THE FORMULAS · every system we run, with its record
THE FORMULAS · every system we run, with its record
| Formula | W–L | Priced | ROI | Units | CLV | vs break-even | Last pick | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pinn_devig | 97–88 | 185 | +3.7%-10.8% to +18.1% | +6.8u | +9.23¢ | not yet separable | Aug 6 | Tonight → |
| consensus_wnba | 1150–861 | 2011 | +0.1%-3.8% to +3.9% | +1.5u | +1.30¢ | not yet separable | Aug 7 | Tonight → |
| form_wnba | 834–597 | 1431 | +6.8%+1.9% to +11.6% | +96.6u | +1.16¢ | beats break-even | Aug 7 | Tonight → |
| model_matrix | 10962–8061 | 19023 | +1.7%+0.4% to +3.0% | +325.1u | +1.08¢ | beats break-even | Aug 7 | Tonight → |
| disciplined_board LIST | 296–195 | 491 | +7.3%-0.5% to +15.1% | +35.9u | +1.08¢ | not yet separable | Aug 6 | Tonight → |
| scout_ml | 795–713 | 1508 | -3.6%-8.3% to +1.1% | -54.7u | +1.05¢ | not yet separable | Aug 5 | Tonight → |
| system_lineedges | 322–208 | 530 | +7.3%-0.1% to +14.8% | +38.8u | +1.05¢ | not yet separable | Aug 6 | Tonight → |
| priced_lineedges CORE | 213–139 | 352 | +8.1%-1.2% to +17.3% | +28.4u | +0.97¢ | not yet separable | Aug 6 | Tonight → |
| claude_combined | 230–198 | 428 | -1.7%-10.4% to +7.0% | -7.4u | +0.12¢ | not yet separable | Jul 18 | Tonight → |
| disciplined_llm | 118–159 | 277 | -15.3%-27.0% to -3.6% | -42.4u | +4.23¢ | losing | Aug 2 | Tonight → |
| consensus_devig · small sample | 32–17 | 49 | +30.9%+3.2% to +58.5% | +15.1u | +4.29¢ | beats break-even | Aug 5 | Tonight → |
| disciplined · small sample | 5–1 | 6 | +51.5%-9.6% to +112.7% | +3.1u | +4.14¢ | not yet separable | Aug 5 | Tonight → |
| both_agree · small sample | 5–1 | 6 | +51.5%-9.6% to +112.7% | +3.1u | +4.14¢ | not yet separable | Aug 5 | Tonight → |
Full-season records, flat 1 unit per pick. ROI is over priced bets only; CLV is the average closing-line value on close-captured picks — the leading indicator (an ROI far ahead of its CLV is running hot). Ranked by CLV first — beating the closing line is the more reliable signal at these sample sizes — with any formula whose ROI range sits entirely below zero moved to the bottom regardless of its CLV. Every number here is over PRICED bets only: picks posted without odds earn nothing whether they win or lose, so counting them inflates a record without ever moving the money. The range beside each ROI is a 95% interval; where it spans zero, the formula has not yet shown an edge distinguishable from break-even, however good the headline looks. With this many formulas compared, expect a couple to clear the bar by chance alone — which is why we do not claim one formula beats another.† marks a number inflated by unpriced signal rows: those picks earn nothing whether they win or lose, so they pad the win rate, and because an unpriced row carries a bet price of zero its recorded CLV is enormous — on the worst offenders most of the published CLV comes from a handful of such rows. Where you see †, read the ROI and the priced count, not the win rate or the CLV. CORE/LIST mark what the house card serves tonight. Records are shown so you can choose with the receipts in view — including the losers.